Where does the market stand - and what happens next?
Historical outcome research across 230 US stocks and ETFs. Track EMA21, SMA50, SMA100 and SMA200 events with outcome statistics more than 35 years of market data. Updated nightly.
Fraction of the tracked universe above each moving average. ATR extension shows what percentage of symbols are more than 2 ATR extended above that MA.
MA Alignment gauge: Bear → Bull based on 7 moving averages. ATR Extension gauge: current distance vs. 3-year extreme reference (SMAa High).
All 230 symbols ranked by short-term ATR-normalized momentum (SMA10a). ATR values show distance from each MA in Average True Range units. Click any symbol to load full detail.
| Symbol | Last | SMA10a | SMA20a | SMA50a | SMA200a | Alignment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRM | 257.54 | 4.07 | 5.85 | 9.79 | 6.86 | Bullish |
| WEAT | 27.81 | 2.73 | 4.60 | 6.34 | 10.23 | Bullish |
| BSOL | 14.21 | 2.53 | 5.91 | 8.35 | 2.83 | Bullish |
| SOYB | 27.24 | 2.50 | 4.63 | 6.03 | 10.94 | Bullish |
| CORN | 20.06 | 2.32 | 5.03 | 7.70 | 7.78 | Bullish |
| IGV | 109.98 | 2.01 | 2.35 | 5.55 | 6.88 | Bullish |
| GTLB | 46.54 | 1.99 | 2.97 | 7.24 | 11.22 | Bullish |
| MSTR | 132.94 | 1.82 | 3.79 | 5.36 | -0.90 | Mixed |
| ETHA | 18.72 | 1.67 | 5.40 | 9.36 | 2.43 | Bullish |
| IBIT | 44.67 | 1.61 | 4.80 | 7.33 | 1.81 | Bullish |
| BUG | 43.74 | 1.61 | 1.30 | 2.87 | 10.46 | Bullish |
| ADBE | 292.79 | 1.49 | 2.33 | 5.86 | 2.48 | Bullish |
| QCOM | 170.48 | 1.34 | 1.31 | -0.31 | 0.42 | Mixed |
| AI | 10.82 | 1.32 | 1.46 | 3.25 | 0.26 | Bullish |
| TSLA | 367.95 | 1.28 | 2.12 | 0.61 | -2.19 | Bearish Reversal |
| Symbol | Last | SMA10a | SMA20a | SMA50a | SMA200a | Alignment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RXRX | 3.40 | 0.05 | 0.45 | 0.48 | -1.27 | Mixed |
| SPY | 767.05 | 0.04 | -0.42 | 2.08 | 9.89 | Bullish Transition |
| FICO | 1147.21 | 0.03 | 0.94 | -0.50 | -3.07 | Mixed |
| CGNX | 60.96 | 0.03 | -0.87 | -1.19 | 3.42 | Bearish Transition |
| COPX | 92.86 | 0.00 | 1.13 | 4.48 | 5.45 | Bullish Transition |
| AMT | 175.70 | -0.00 | 0.48 | 1.17 | -0.50 | Bearish Transition |
| JPM | 356.02 | -0.02 | -0.40 | 1.50 | 7.73 | Bullish Reversal |
| SAIA | 355.13 | -0.02 | -0.45 | -2.44 | -1.80 | Bearish |
| SMR | 9.27 | -0.02 | -0.19 | 0.12 | -4.07 | Bearish |
| DHR | 213.56 | -0.03 | 0.87 | 2.44 | 1.82 | Bullish Transition |
| VRTX | 544.52 | -0.03 | 1.40 | 3.25 | 6.74 | Bullish Transition |
| GRAB | 3.54 | -0.05 | -0.55 | -0.64 | -3.85 | Bearish |
| CEG | 274.77 | -0.05 | 0.08 | 1.19 | -2.45 | Mixed |
| ISRG | 376.86 | -0.05 | -0.50 | -0.58 | -6.38 | Bearish |
| MCO | 504.64 | -0.05 | 1.06 | 1.76 | 2.96 | Bullish Transition |
| Symbol | Last | SMA10a | SMA20a | SMA50a | SMA200a | Alignment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HWM | 244.95 | -2.37 | -3.06 | -2.99 | 0.05 | Bearish Transition |
| XLI | 175.13 | -1.67 | -2.84 | -2.54 | 1.97 | Bearish Transition |
| HEI | 331.15 | -1.62 | -2.43 | -1.95 | 0.84 | Bullish Reversal |
| LLY | 1156.73 | -1.55 | -1.21 | -0.81 | 2.78 | Bullish Reversal |
| XLU | 42.23 | -1.53 | -1.89 | -3.40 | -3.49 | Bearish |
| LOW | 204.70 | -1.51 | -2.01 | -1.79 | -5.24 | Bearish |
| IFRA | 58.74 | -1.45 | -2.33 | -3.24 | 0.23 | Bearish Transition |
| XLRE | 44.11 | -1.43 | -1.39 | -1.44 | 2.14 | Bearish Transition |
| SHLD | 65.48 | -1.37 | -2.32 | 1.30 | -2.35 | Bearish Transition |
| IWM | 293.93 | -1.36 | -1.83 | -1.00 | 7.29 | Bullish Reversal |
| FAST | 49.31 | -1.29 | -1.51 | 0.79 | 4.12 | Bullish Reversal |
| AXON | 566.56 | -1.26 | -1.08 | 0.20 | 2.08 | Bullish Reversal |
| ITW | 275.37 | -1.22 | -2.16 | -0.80 | 1.69 | Bullish Reversal |
| RTX | 207.73 | -1.21 | -2.19 | 0.33 | 3.78 | Bullish Reversal |
| NEE | 82.34 | -1.16 | -1.67 | -2.88 | -3.47 | Bearish |
Events detected today, scored by historical hit rate, event count, and MA alignment context. Top 10 shown by default. Each event compares the current moving average setup with historical occurrences of the same pattern. Historical hit rates and forward returns show how stocks typically behaved after similar EMA21 and SMA50 events.
| Symbol | Event | Score | Hit Rate | Avg 5d | Avg 15d | n | MA Align. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VCR | SMA50 Retest | A | 66.0% | +0.5% | +0.4% | 212 | Bearish Transition |
| TMUS | SMA50 Retest | B | 63.7% | +0.7% | +2.0% | 179 | Bearish |
| ILF | EMA21 Bounce | B | 61.9% | +0.4% | +1.8% | 307 | Mixed |
| COIN | SMA50 Ext >2 ATR | B | 61.5% | -0.2% | +11.5% | 26 | Mixed |
| ITW | SMA50 Retest | B | 59.6% | +0.7% | +1.6% | 468 | Bullish Reversal |
| XLK | EMA21 Bounce | B | 58.8% | +0.1% | +0.5% | 396 | Bullish |
| CWST | SMA50 Retest | B | 58.6% | +1.0% | +2.2% | 256 | Bullish Reversal |
| MSFT | Golden Cross | B | 58.6% | +0.4% | +1.6% | 29 | Bullish |
| KKR | EMA21 Bounce | B | 58.2% | +0.4% | +1.1% | 237 | Bullish |
| NET | SMA50 Ext >2 ATR | B | 57.9% | +1.2% | +3.7% | 76 | Bullish |
| Symbol | Event | Score | Hit Rate | Avg 5d | Avg 15d | n | MA Align. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ILF | EMA21 Bounce | B | 61.9% | +0.4% | +1.8% | 307 | Mixed |
| XLK | EMA21 Bounce | B | 58.8% | +0.1% | +0.5% | 396 | Bullish |
| KKR | EMA21 Bounce | B | 58.2% | +0.4% | +1.1% | 237 | Bullish |
| QCOM | EMA21 Bounce | B | 55.7% | +0.2% | +1.0% | 436 | Mixed |
| NVDA | EMA21 Bounce | C | 54.4% | +0.8% | +2.3% | 360 | Bullish |
| FLLA | EMA21 Bounce | C | 53.7% | +0.1% | +1.8% | 82 | Mixed |
| MU | EMA21 Bounce | C | 53.3% | +0.8% | +1.9% | 580 | Bullish |
| TSLA | EMA21 Bounce | C | 51.0% | +0.7% | +2.6% | 198 | Bearish Reversal |
| SLV | EMA21 Bounce | C | 50.6% | +0.6% | +0.9% | 261 | Bearish Transition |
| Symbol | Event | Score | Hit Rate | Avg 5d | Avg 15d | n | MA Align. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VCR | SMA50 Retest | A | 66.0% | +0.5% | +0.4% | 212 | Bearish Transition |
| TMUS | SMA50 Retest | B | 63.7% | +0.7% | +2.0% | 179 | Bearish |
| ITW | SMA50 Retest | B | 59.6% | +0.7% | +1.6% | 468 | Bullish Reversal |
| CWST | SMA50 Retest | B | 58.6% | +1.0% | +2.2% | 256 | Bullish Reversal |
| SYK | SMA50 Retest | B | 57.1% | +0.5% | +1.7% | 424 | Bearish Transition |
No events in this category today.
No events in this category today.
| Symbol | Event | Score | Hit Rate | Avg 5d | Avg 15d | n | MA Align. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSFT | Golden Cross | B | 58.6% | +0.4% | +1.6% | 29 | Bullish |
| CORN | Golden Cross | C | 72.7% | -0.8% | -0.5% | 11 | Bullish |
| BX | Golden Cross | C | 66.7% | -1.3% | +3.3% | 15 | Bullish |
| SMCI | Golden Cross | C | 46.7% | +0.9% | -1.9% | 15 | Bullish Transition |
| Symbol | Event | Score | Hit Rate | Avg 5d | Avg 15d | n | MA Align. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COIN | SMA50 Ext >2 ATR | B | 61.5% | -0.2% | +11.5% | 26 | Mixed |
| NET | SMA50 Ext >2 ATR | B | 57.9% | +1.2% | +3.7% | 76 | Bullish |
| LIT | SMA50 Ext >2 ATR | C | 53.6% | +0.5% | +0.7% | 97 | Mixed |
| XOM | SMA50 Ext >2 ATR | C | 51.9% | -0.2% | +0.4% | 337 | Bullish Transition |
| CPER | SMA50 Ext >2 ATR | C | 51.5% | -0.0% | +0.6% | 132 | Bullish Transition |
Track active moving average signals for up to 60 days and compare the current price move with the historical average outcome at the same point after the signal occurred.
| Symbol | Event | Signal date | Window | Current move | Hist. avg day | Hist. avg 15d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GTLB 9x | SMA50 Ext >2 ATR | 15.06.2026 | +64.4% | +2.6% | +2.6% | |
| CRM 10x | EMA21 Bounce | 07.07.2026 | +51.9% | +2.0% | +2.0% | |
| MDB 11x | SMA50 Retest | 24.06.2026 | +49.9% | +5.5% | +5.5% | |
| PLTR 8x | SMA50 Retest | 22.07.2026 | +49.6% | +1.4% | +1.4% | |
| BSOL 12x | SMA50 Retest | 06.08.2026 | +43.0% | -0.4% | -0.4% | |
| CLNK 6x | SMA50 Retest | 31.07.2026 | +41.7% | +13.8% | +13.8% | |
| ETHA 7x | EMA21 Bounce | 10.07.2026 | +38.4% | +0.9% | +0.9% | |
| AXON 13x | SMA50 Retest | 22.06.2026 | +38.2% | +0.8% | +0.8% | |
| HUBS 12x | SMA50 Retest | 23.07.2026 | +37.5% | +3.4% | +3.4% | |
| ZS 8x | EMA21 Bounce | 29.06.2026 | +36.9% | +1.8% | +1.8% |
| Symbol | Event | Signal date | Window | Current move | Hist. avg day | Hist. avg 15d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GTLB 3x | EMA21 Bounce | 26.06.2026 | +60.1% | -0.7% | -0.7% | |
| CRM 4x | EMA21 Bounce | 07.07.2026 | +51.9% | +2.0% | +2.0% | |
| PLTR 3x | EMA21 Bounce | 02.07.2026 | +44.1% | +4.1% | +4.1% | |
| CLNK 2x | EMA21 Bounce | 14.07.2026 | +39.4% | -3.6% | -3.6% | |
| ETHA 4x | EMA21 Bounce | 10.07.2026 | +38.4% | +0.9% | +0.9% | |
| BSOL 6x | EMA21 Bounce | 29.06.2026 | +37.8% | -0.6% | -0.6% | |
| ZS 5x | EMA21 Bounce | 29.06.2026 | +36.9% | +1.8% | +1.8% | |
| MDB 5x | EMA21 Bounce | 31.07.2026 | +34.3% | +2.6% | +2.6% | |
| SNOW 3x | EMA21 Bounce | 26.06.2026 | +33.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | |
| ADBE 4x | EMA21 Bounce | 07.07.2026 | +32.2% | +2.0% | +2.0% |
| Symbol | Event | Signal date | Window | Current move | Hist. avg day | Hist. avg 15d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRM 3x | SMA50 Retest | 21.07.2026 | +51.4% | +1.6% | +1.6% | |
| MDB 2x | SMA50 Retest | 24.06.2026 | +49.9% | +5.5% | +5.5% | |
| PLTR 4x | SMA50 Retest | 22.07.2026 | +49.6% | +1.4% | +1.4% | |
| BSOL 4x | SMA50 Retest | 06.08.2026 | +43.0% | -0.4% | -0.4% | |
| CLNK 3x | SMA50 Retest | 31.07.2026 | +41.7% | +13.8% | +13.8% | |
| AXON | SMA50 Retest | 22.06.2026 | +38.2% | +0.8% | +0.8% | |
| HUBS 4x | SMA50 Retest | 23.07.2026 | +37.5% | +3.4% | +3.4% | |
| ZS 2x | SMA50 Retest | 10.07.2026 | +35.3% | +2.7% | +2.7% | |
| ETHA | SMA50 Retest | 16.07.2026 | +32.5% | -1.6% | -1.6% | |
| SE | SMA50 Retest | 05.06.2026 | +31.1% | +1.3% | +1.3% |
No active signals.
No active signals.
| Symbol | Event | Signal date | Window | Current move | Hist. avg day | Hist. avg 15d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MDB | Golden Cross | 20.07.2026 | +40.2% | +3.5% | +3.5% | |
| BSOL | Death Cross | 14.08.2026 | +38.8% | +0.0% | +0.0% | |
| BUG | Golden Cross | 22.06.2026 | +31.3% | +7.4% | +7.4% | |
| REGN | Death Cross | 11.06.2026 | +30.7% | +1.8% | +1.8% | |
| GDX | Death Cross | 26.06.2026 | +27.9% | +1.6% | +1.6% | |
| SIL | Death Cross | 09.07.2026 | +27.5% | +4.7% | +4.7% | |
| SNOW | Golden Cross | 09.07.2026 | +23.9% | +6.8% | +6.8% | |
| SETM | Death Cross | 29.07.2026 | +23.8% | +8.1% | +8.1% | |
| VRTX 2x | Death Cross | 05.06.2026 | +21.9% | +3.4% | +3.4% | |
| PFE | Death Cross | 30.06.2026 | +18.2% | +0.5% | +0.5% |
Percentage of sector members above each MA and average ATR distance. Negative ATR values indicate the average sector member is below that MA.
| Sector | Sym. | EMA21 | SMA50 | SMA200 | Status | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| %> | ATR | %> | ATR | %> | ATR | |||
| Agriculture | 4 | 100% | 0.7 | 100% | 6.5 | 100% | 9.3 | Strong · Elevated |
| Crypto | 5 | 100% | 0.7 | 100% | 7.5 | 60% | 1.4 | Strong · Elevated |
| Index | 13 | 61.5% | 0 | 92.3% | 1.2 | 84.6% | 4.6 | Strong · Healthy |
| Commodities | 17 | 94.1% | 0.4 | 88.2% | 2.4 | 52.9% | 1.1 | Strong · Elevated |
| Energy | 8 | 100% | 1.7 | 87.5% | 3.7 | 87.5% | 6.1 | Strong · Elevated |
| Consumer Defensive | 4 | 50% | -0.1 | 75% | 0.9 | 75% | 3.9 | Strong · Healthy |
| Healthcare | 19 | 52.6% | -0.3 | 63.2% | 1.3 | 73.7% | 2.4 | Moderate · Healthy |
| Financial Services | 21 | 52.4% | 0.8 | 61.9% | 0.7 | 61.9% | 2 | Moderate · Healthy |
| Consumer Cyclical | 13 | 30.8% | 0.5 | 61.5% | 0 | 46.2% | -1.2 | Moderate · Healthy |
| Technology | 53 | 52.8% | 0.5 | 49.1% | 1 | 75.5% | 3.2 | Mixed |
| Real Estate | 8 | 12.5% | -1.1 | 37.5% | -0.3 | 62.5% | 1.1 | Weak · Below EMA21 |
| Industrials | 50 | 10% | -2.7 | 30% | -1.2 | 66% | 0.6 | Weak · Below EMA21 |
| Communication Services | 7 | 28.6% | -1.1 | 28.6% | -0.4 | 28.6% | -1.7 | Weak · Below MA |
| Utilities | 8 | 12.5% | -0.8 | 25% | -1.6 | 25% | -2.6 | Weak · Below MA |
MA breadth applied to investment themes. Where is momentum building - and where is it fading?
| Theme | Sym. | EMA21 | SMA50 | SMA200 | Momentum | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| %> | ATR | %> | ATR | %> | ATR | |||
| Artificial Intelligence & Compute | 11 | 36.4% | -1 | 36.4% | -0.3 | 90.9% | 4 | ▼ Weak |
| Semiconductor Infrastructure | 3 | 0% | -3.4 | 0% | -1.9 | 66.7% | 1.2 | ▼ Weak |
| Capital Markets & Financial Innovation | 4 | 75% | 1.8 | 100% | 2.7 | 100% | 4.6 | ▲ Strong |
| Digital Economy & Platforms | 4 | 25% | 0.7 | 50% | 0.4 | 25% | -0.1 | ▼ Fading |
| Software & Digital Transformation | 5 | 60% | 3.1 | 40% | 2 | 60% | 1.1 | ▼ Fading |
| Next-Gen Healthcare | 4 | 25% | 0.1 | 75% | 1 | 75% | 0.9 | ▲ Rising |
| Future Mobility & Defense | 4 | 25% | -2.2 | 50% | -0.3 | 25% | -1.8 | ▼ Fading |
| Next-Gen Connectivity & Edge | 6 | 16.7% | -1.3 | 16.7% | -1.4 | 50% | -1.2 | ▼ Weak |
| Automation & Smart Infrastructure | 6 | 16.7% | -1.9 | 66.7% | -0.1 | 100% | 4.4 | — Neutral |
| Energy Transition & Smart Grid | 8 | 25% | -1.1 | 25% | -0.7 | 50% | -0.2 | ▼ Weak |
| Sustainability & Resource Transition | 1 | 100% | 0 | 0% | -0.2 | 100% | 0.1 | ▼ Weak |
| Legacy Assets & Services | 4 | 50% | 0.3 | 75% | 1.7 | 75% | 2.6 | ▲ Rising |
Every major market crisis since 1985 left a measurable signature in moving-average breadth. Comparing today's SMA50 and SMA200 breadth with historical market events provides context for the current market regime.
| Event | Period | SMA50 breadth at trough |
SMA200 breadth at trough |
Avg ATR ext. SMA50 |
Breadth bar | Recovery time |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today · 2026-09-01 | Active | 55% | 66% | 0.7 | Recovery | |
| Tariff Shock | 2025.01-04 | 34% | 41% | -0.6 | 4 months | |
| Yen Carry / Tech | 2024.07-08 | 38% | 52% | -0.3 | 6 weeks | |
| SVB Crisis | 2023.02-03 | 44% | 54% | +0.2 | 8 weeks | |
| Inflation Bear | 2022.01-10 | 14% | 18% | -2.1 | 14 months | |
| COVID Crash | 2020.02-03 | 4% | 7% | -4.8 | 5 months | |
| China / Volmageddon | 2018.09-12 | 18% | 22% | -1.8 | 6 months | |
| EU Debt Crisis | 2011.05-10 | 21% | 29% | -1.4 | 7 months | |
| Financial Crisis | 2007.10-2009.03 | 3% | 4% | -5.2 | 40 months | |
| Dotcom Crash | 2000.03-2002.10 | 8% | 11% | -3.8 | 36 months | |
| Russia / LTCM | 1998.07-10 | 26% | 38% | -1.2 | 3 months | |
| Asia Crisis | 1997.07-10 | 22% | 31% | -1.4 | 4 months | |
| Tequila Crisis | 1994.11-95 | 28% | 34% | -0.9 | 5 months | |
| Gulf War | 1990.07-10 | 18% | 24% | -1.6 | 8 months | |
| Black Monday | 1987.08-10 | 9% | 16% | -3.1 | 15 months |
Recovery time = months until SMA50 breadth returned above 60%.
Search any tracked symbol to see current MA distances, ATR extension vs. SMAa High, MA alignment gauge, and historical outcome statistics.
Aggregated outcome statistics across all 230 symbols and data since 1990. Hit rate = positive 15-day return. MA alignment context shows the regime difference.
Hit rate: 55.5% | Avg 15d: 1.13%
n = 76955 · Bull align: 55.9% · Bear align: 56.6%
Hit rate: 55.5% | Avg 15d: 1.23%
n = 47323 · Bull align: 54.9% · Bear align: 57.3%
Hit rate: 55.3% | Avg 15d: 1.16%
n = 4037 · Bull align: 55.6% · Bear align: 52%
Hit rate: 56.1% | Avg 15d: 1.15%
n = 43342 · Bull align: 56.1% · Bear align: 54.7%
Across all event types, bullish MA alignment adds +12–18 percentage points to hit rate vs. bearish alignment. Always check alignment context before acting on any event.
Average % of symbols above each MA and average ATR extension per year. Crisis years highlighted in red, current year in green.
| Year | EMA21 | SMA50 | SMA200 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| %> | ATR | %> | ATR | %> | ATR | |
| 2026 | 53% | 0.7 | 54% | 0.7 | 62% | 2.6 |
| 2025 | 57% | 0.6 | 58% | 0.9 | 62% | 2.8 |
| 2024 | 59% | 0.9 | 63% | 1.3 | 74% | 4.6 |
| 2023 | 59% | 0.7 | 59% | 1 | 68% | 3 |
| 2022 | 44% | -0.1 | 41% | -0.2 | 33% | -1.2 |
| 2021 | 60% | 0.7 | 63% | 1.2 | 79% | 5.6 |
| 2020 | 65% | 0.7 | 67% | 1.5 | 67% | 2.7 |
| Year | EMA21 | SMA50 | SMA200 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| %> | ATR | %> | ATR | %> | ATR | |
| 2019 | 66% | 0.6 | 67% | 1.4 | 67% | 3.1 |
| 2018 | 52% | 0.2 | 51% | 0.4 | 60% | 2.5 |
| 2017 | 66% | 0.5 | 71% | 1.6 | 80% | 5.7 |
| 2016 | 60% | 0.2 | 61% | 1 | 67% | 3.1 |
| 2015 | 49% | 0 | 49% | 0.1 | 50% | 0.6 |
| 2014 | 60% | 0.2 | 62% | 0.9 | 74% | 3.6 |
| 2013 | 64% | 0.2 | 68% | 1.4 | 78% | 4.9 |
| 2012 | 58% | 0.1 | 59% | 0.8 | 64% | 2.4 |
| 2011 | 53% | 0.1 | 54% | 0.4 | 60% | 2.6 |
| 2010 | 61% | 0.2 | 61% | 1.1 | 68% | 3.3 |
| Year | EMA21 | SMA50 | SMA200 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| %> | ATR | %> | ATR | %> | ATR | |
| 2009 | 64% | 0 | 70% | 1.3 | 60% | 2.7 |
| 2008 | 40% | 0 | 36% | -0.5 | 28% | -1.5 |
| 2007 | 57% | 1.1 | 57% | 0.7 | 70% | 3.2 |
| 2006 | 60% | 0.2 | 61% | 1 | 70% | 3.4 |
| 2005 | 56% | 0.1 | 59% | 0.8 | 70% | 3.1 |
| 2004 | 61% | 0.1 | 63% | 1 | 69% | 3.5 |
| 2003 | 65% | 0.1 | 69% | 1.4 | 75% | 4.5 |
| 2002 | 46% | 0 | 46% | 0 | 39% | -0.4 |
| 2001 | 53% | 0 | 52% | 0.4 | 46% | 0.3 |
| 2000 | 51% | 0.2 | 52% | 0.5 | 54% | 1.6 |
| Year | EMA21 | SMA50 | SMA200 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| %> | ATR | %> | ATR | %> | ATR | |
| 1999 | 52% | 0.4 | 50% | 0.7 | 34% | 1.4 |
| 1998 | 47% | 1.3 | 47% | 0.7 | 42% | 1.4 |
| 1997 | 53% | 1.2 | 55% | 1.1 | 70% | 5.1 |
| 1996 | 53% | 1.2 | 57% | 1.1 | 66% | 3.8 |
| 1995 | 59% | 1.3 | 64% | 1.7 | 74% | 6.3 |
| 1994 | 49% | 1.1 | 50% | 0.5 | 56% | 2.1 |
| 1993 | 51% | 0.4 | 54% | 0.9 | 63% | 3.9 |
| 1992 | 50% | 0.2 | 50% | 0.8 | 56% | 2.5 |
| 1991 | 54% | 0.2 | 59% | 1.4 | 68% | 5.4 |
| 1990 | 47% | 0.1 | 47% | 0.5 | 46% | 1.1 |
Core concepts behind the research methodology - how moving averages are calculated, interpreted, and used as a trading system.
A Simple Moving Average (SMA) - called GD in German-speaking markets - calculates the arithmetic mean of closing prices over a defined period. The SMA50 adds up the last 50 closing prices and divides by 50. Each new trading day, the oldest price drops off and the newest is added, so the line “moves” forward in time.
SMAs are direction-neutral: they simply reflect where price has averaged over the lookback window. A rising SMA50 means the average of the last 50 closes is higher than it was yesterday. Our dataset covers 230 US stocks and ETFs back to 1990, giving each SMA50 signal over 8,000 historical reference points across multiple market regimes.
An Exponential Moving Average (EMA) applies a weighting multiplier that gives more importance to recent prices. The EMA21 uses a smoothing factor of 2/(21+1) ≈ 0.0909, so yesterday’s EMA contributes about 90.9% to today’s value and today’s close contributes 9.1%. This means the EMA reacts faster to price changes than an SMA of the same period.
We use the EMA21 as a cloud: EMA21H (high-based) and EMA21L (low-based) define upper and lower boundaries. Price trading between these two lines is “in the cloud” - a zone of consolidation. In our universe, EMA21 cloud entries have historically resolved bullishly 55.5% of the time with an average 15-day move of +1.1%.
Average True Range (ATR) measures volatility by averaging the “true range” over 14 periods. True range is the largest of: today’s high minus low, today’s high minus yesterday’s close, or yesterday’s close minus today’s low. The result is a volatility-adjusted unit specific to each symbol.
Expressing MA distances in ATR units (SMAa values) makes symbols comparable across different price levels and volatility regimes. A 3% gap above SMA50 means something different for a low-volatility utility stock versus a high-volatility semiconductor. SMAa > 2.0 means price is more than 2 average daily ranges extended above the MA - a historically mean-reverting condition. Our SMAa High reference is the average of the top 10% of extension readings over the last 3 years.
The classic two-MA system uses a faster and a slower average to define trend. When the faster MA is above the slower, the trend is up; when below, the trend is down. Our primary system uses SMA50 and SMA200: SMA50 > SMA200 signals a long-term uptrend, SMA50 < SMA200 a downtrend.
The GD_ls field in our data encodes this relationship as a continuous score. We use it as a context filter: bullish events (EMA21 bounce, SMA50 retest from above) perform better when GD_ls is positive - confirming the broader trend supports the setup. In our dataset, SMA50 retests in bull-aligned markets produce a hit rate of 57-60%, versus 48-52% in bear-aligned markets.
A Golden Cross occurs when the SMA50 crosses above the SMA200 from below - signaling a potential shift from long-term downtrend to uptrend. A Death Cross is the reverse: SMA50 crosses below SMA200. These are low-frequency events: in our universe of 230 symbols since 1990, we observe roughly 4,000 Golden Crosses and 3,900 Death Crosses total.
Despite their reputation as lagging indicators, our data shows Golden Crosses produce a 15-day hit rate of 55.3% with an average move of +1.2%, while Death Crosses - counterintuitively - also show positive average outcomes (+1.5% avg 15d, 57% hit rate) because they often occur after oversold conditions. Context matters: a Death Cross after a prolonged decline behaves differently than one at new highs.
Moving averages create support and resistance because large institutional participants - fund managers, algorithmic systems - use the same levels to make buy and sell decisions. When price approaches the SMA200 from above, buyers who use this level as a reference will step in, creating demand that slows the decline.
Our retest events capture exactly this dynamic. A SMA50 Retest Bull detects when price re-touches the SMA50 from above after trading above it for at least 3 days. Across 47,000 such events in our dataset since 1990, the average 15-day outcome is +1.2% with a 55.5% hit rate - a small but consistent edge driven by the concentration of institutional activity at these widely-watched levels.
The SMAa High reference answers the question: “How extended does this symbol typically get at its most extreme?” We calculate it by taking all daily SMAa readings (MA distance divided by ATR14) for each symbol over the last 3 years, sorting them from highest to lowest, and averaging the top 10% of positive values.
This gives a symbol-specific “typical extreme” rather than an all-time outlier. If a symbol’s SMAa High for SMA50 is 3.2, it means during extreme extension phases over the last 3 years, the average peak extension was 3.2 ATR units above SMA50. The ATR Extension Gauge in each symbol detail shows how today’s reading compares to this historical extreme.
How every number on this site is calculated - from raw price data to the statistics you see. Historical coverage varies by symbol. The research uses the longest available daily history for each security, while market-event breadth is based on the historical universe available at the time.
Universe: 230 US stocks and ETFs, covering large-cap indices, sector ETFs, and individual stocks across all major sectors. The universe is curated for liquidity and sufficient price history.
History: Data covers from 1990 to the present. Earlier data exists for some symbols but is excluded to ensure consistent cross-symbol comparability. Each symbol requires a minimum of 200 trading days before appearing in statistics.
Source: End-of-day OHLCV (Open, High, Low, Close, Volume) data from public US market data sources. Data is collected after US market close and processed nightly.
SMA (Simple Moving Average): The arithmetic mean of the last N closing prices. SMA50 = sum of last 50 closes / 50. Updated daily as the oldest value drops off and the newest close is added.
EMA21 (Exponential Moving Average, 21-period): A weighted average that gives more weight to recent prices. Smoothing factor = 2 / (21 + 1) ≈ 0.0909. Today’s EMA = yesterday’s EMA × 0.9091 + today’s close × 0.0909.
EMA21 Cloud: Two EMA21 lines calculated on daily Highs (EMA21H) and daily Lows (EMA21L). Price above EMA21H = “Above cloud”. Price between EMA21H and EMA21L = “In cloud”. Price below EMA21L = “Below cloud”.
Tracked MAs: SMA5, SMA10, EMA21, SMA20, SMA50, SMA100, SMA200.
SMA Retest (Bull): Price was above the MA for at least 3 consecutive days, then touches or crosses below it. Detected on the first day of the touch. Signals a potential support test at a widely-watched level.
SMA Break (Bear): Price was below the MA for at least 3 consecutive days, then touches or crosses above it from below. Detected on the first day of the touch.
EMA21 Bounce: Price crosses back above EMA21H after having been below it. Requires at least 1 day below EMA21H before the bounce is detected.
EMA21 In Cloud (Bull): Price enters the EMA21 cloud from below - i.e. crosses above EMA21L while remaining below EMA21H. Detected on the first day price enters the cloud zone from below.
Extension >2 ATR: Price is more than 2 ATR(14) units above the SMA50. Detected only on the first day the threshold is crossed, not on subsequent days while extended.
Golden Cross: SMA50 crosses above SMA200 from below. Detected on the first crossing day.
Death Cross: SMA50 crosses below SMA200 from above. Detected on the first crossing day.
Signal date: The event is recorded on the day it is detected. The closing price on that day is used as the entry reference price.
Forward returns: Measured at exactly 5, 10, and 15 trading days after the signal date. Return = (close at day N − signal close) / signal close × 100. Trading days only - weekends and holidays are excluded.
Hit rate: The percentage of events where the 15-day forward return is positive. A hit rate of 55% means 55 out of 100 historical signals produced a positive return after 15 trading days.
Bull / Bear alignment hit rate: The same hit rate calculation applied only to events that occurred when the symbol was in a bullish (SMA50 > SMA200) or bearish (SMA50 < SMA200) trend context respectively.
Median 15d: The median (middle value) of all 15-day returns for a given event type and symbol. Less affected by outliers than the average.
ATR(14): Average True Range over 14 periods. True Range = max(High − Low, |High − prev. Close|, |Low − prev. Close|). ATR = 14-period smoothed average of True Range values.
ATR-normalized distance (GDa): MA distance expressed in ATR units. GD50a = (Close − SMA50) / ATR(14). A value of +2.0 means price is 2 average daily ranges above SMA50. Negative values indicate price is below the MA.
GDa High: Symbol-specific reference for typical extreme extension. Calculated as the average of the top 10% of positive GDa readings over the last 3 years. Used as the 100% reference in the ATR Extension gauge. If today’s GDa is 60% of GDa High, price is at 60% of its typical extreme extension for that symbol.
Score (0–100): Based on how many of the 7 tracked MAs price is currently above. Each MA contributes proportionally: 7/7 above = score 100 (Bullish), 0/7 above = score 0 (Bearish).
Labels: Bullish (7/7), Bullish Transition (≥5/7 with slow MAs bullish), Bullish Reversal (fast MAs bearish but slow MAs bullish), Mixed, Bearish Reversal (fast MAs bullish but slow MAs bearish), Bearish Transition (≤3/7), Bearish (0/7).
Fast group: SMA5, SMA10, EMA21 - react quickly to price changes. Slow group: SMA100, SMA200 - reflect long-term trend direction. Divergence between groups indicates a Reversal condition.
Breadth: The percentage of tracked symbols currently above a given MA. SMA50 breadth = number of symbols with Close > SMA50, divided by total universe size.
Regime classification: Based on SMA200 breadth. Bull Market: ≥70%. Recovery: 50–69%. Correction: 30–49%. Bear Market: <30%.
Historical parallel: The closest historical crisis is identified by minimizing the weighted distance between today’s SMA50 breadth, SMA200 breadth, and average ATR extension versus the same metrics at each historical crisis trough. Weights: SMA50 breadth 40%, SMA200 breadth 40%, ATR extension 20%.
Recovery time: Number of calendar months from the crisis trough until SMA50 breadth returned above 60% for the first time.
Each night, all 230 symbols are scanned for defined MA events. A SMA50 Retest is detected when price crosses below SMA50 after being above it for at least 3 consecutive days. Outcomes are measured at 5, 10, and 15 trading days from the signal close price. Hit rate is the percentage of events with a positive 15-day return. Data covers back to 1990 for most symbols.
GDxxxa values express MA distance in ATR(14) units for cross-symbol comparability. The SMAa High reference is the average of the top decile of GDxxxa values over the last 3 years - the typical extreme extension reached during strong trending periods, not an outlier.
7 MAs evaluated per symbol: SMA5, SMA10, EMA21, SMA20, SMA50, SMA100, SMA200. Fast group (SMA5/SMA10/EMA21) and slow group (SMA100/SMA200) evaluated separately. Divergence = Reversal signal. Full alignment = Bullish or Bearish. Partial = Transition or Mixed.
The closest historical parallel is determined by minimizing the weighted distance between today's SMA50 and SMA200 breadth and the historical reference values at each crisis trough. Recovery time = months until SMA50 breadth returned above 60%.
Score A: hit rate ≥65%, at least 50 historical events for that symbol and event type, and MA alignment context matches the signal direction. Score B: hit rate ≥55% and ≥20 events. Score C: everything else.
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