Where does the market stand - and what happens next?
Historical outcome research across 230 US stocks and ETFs. Track EMA21, SMA50, SMA100 and SMA200 events with outcome statistics from more than 35 years of market data. Updated nightly.
Fraction of the tracked universe above each moving average. ATR extension shows the percentage of symbols trading more than 2 ATR above that MA.
MA Alignment gauge: Bear → Bull based on 7 moving averages. ATR Extension gauge: current distance vs. 3-year extreme reference (SMAa High).
All 230 symbols ranked by short-term ATR-normalized momentum (SMA10a), measuring the percentage distance from the SMA10 relative to ATR14. ATR values show MA distance in Average True Range units. Click any symbol to load full detail.
| Symbol | Last | SMA10a | SMA20a | SMA50a | SMA200a | Alignment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOFI | 17.61 | 3.48 | 3.40 | 1.43 | -0.30 | Mixed |
| BBAI | 2.67 | 3.18 | 2.38 | -0.06 | -4.50 | Turning Up |
| LMT | 643.59 | 3.17 | 6.13 | 6.84 | 4.90 | Uptrend |
| VRT | 245.92 | 2.90 | 1.57 | 0.20 | -1.60 | Turning Up |
| PHO | 73.93 | 2.72 | 4.49 | 4.90 | 5.37 | Uptrend |
| SHLD | 64.99 | 2.62 | 4.07 | 2.64 | -2.25 | Mixed |
| HEI | 326.35 | 2.30 | 2.80 | 1.62 | 0.83 | Mixed |
| LLY | 1373.70 | 2.22 | 3.71 | 4.87 | 8.43 | Uptrend |
| LULU | 109.82 | 2.14 | 3.24 | 1.72 | -4.88 | Turning Up |
| ARES | 127.47 | 2.05 | 2.61 | 0.34 | 0.66 | Uptrend |
| IWM | 284.01 | 2.05 | 1.86 | -0.18 | 1.53 | Mixed |
| CMG | 31.28 | 2.05 | 1.06 | -1.43 | -2.11 | Turning Up |
| SBUX | 105.51 | 1.98 | 3.78 | 2.86 | 2.61 | Uptrend |
| IFRA | 58.54 | 1.90 | 2.12 | 1.47 | -1.12 | Turning Up |
| ENTG | 160.00 | 1.89 | 0.80 | 1.69 | 2.84 | Uptrend |
| Symbol | Last | SMA10a | SMA20a | SMA50a | SMA200a | Alignment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USO | 168.19 | 0.86 | 2.48 | 4.20 | 12.08 | Uptrend |
| URNM | 44.78 | 0.83 | -0.02 | -2.88 | -6.53 | Turning Up |
| WMT | 121.25 | 0.81 | 2.80 | 5.34 | 1.20 | Uptrend |
| ZS | 247.82 | 0.80 | 1.77 | 4.42 | 9.71 | Uptrend Building |
| TLT | 81.49 | 0.77 | 2.60 | 1.23 | -3.78 | Turning Up |
| SMR | 5.92 | 0.76 | -0.85 | -3.30 | -5.90 | Turning Up |
| XOM | 183.29 | 0.75 | 2.29 | 4.51 | 8.89 | Uptrend |
| NKE | 38.42 | 0.74 | 2.09 | 1.39 | -6.00 | Turning Up |
| ABBV | 290.79 | 0.73 | 1.78 | 3.82 | 10.57 | Uptrend |
| CVX | 231.46 | 0.71 | 2.58 | 4.53 | 10.15 | Uptrend |
| NUKZ | 58.51 | 0.69 | -0.48 | -2.45 | -5.88 | Turning Up |
| CRUS | 113.71 | 0.69 | 0.53 | -0.18 | -6.26 | Turning Up |
| ETN | 393.72 | 0.68 | -0.73 | -1.15 | -0.20 | Turning Up |
| POWL | 168.48 | 0.66 | -0.69 | -1.18 | -3.65 | Turning Up |
| PLD | 128.02 | 0.66 | 0.02 | -2.00 | -3.67 | Turning Up |
| Symbol | Last | SMA10a | SMA20a | SMA50a | SMA200a | Alignment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOOGL | 283.82 | -3.37 | -4.20 | -4.41 | -4.45 | Downtrend |
| FLLA | 25.84 | -3.24 | -3.79 | -2.88 | -2.48 | Downtrend |
| ILF | 32.68 | -3.00 | -3.69 | -2.95 | -2.46 | Downtrend |
| XLC | 101.21 | -2.81 | -4.06 | -5.01 | -5.97 | Downtrend |
| PLTM | 14.29 | -2.06 | -3.06 | -5.15 | -8.13 | Downtrend |
| PALL | 18.22 | -1.93 | -3.12 | -6.45 | -10.43 | Downtrend |
| UNG | 9.18 | -1.86 | -3.04 | -3.11 | -4.65 | Downtrend |
| CAT | 647.39 | -1.83 | -3.05 | -3.79 | -4.29 | Downtrend |
| ENPH | 25.86 | -1.76 | -2.20 | -3.07 | -4.78 | Downtrend |
| NFLX | 62.05 | -1.75 | -2.65 | -4.68 | -7.49 | Downtrend |
| WEAT | 22.17 | -1.72 | -3.54 | -6.29 | -2.96 | Downtrend |
| SLV | 47.28 | -1.70 | -2.79 | -5.00 | -8.42 | Downtrend |
| ODFL | 172.35 | -1.70 | -1.53 | -1.73 | -3.91 | Downtrend |
| BA | 172.65 | -1.69 | -2.08 | -3.48 | -5.79 | Downtrend |
| MELI | 1660.13 | -1.68 | -2.21 | -2.67 | -2.27 | Downtrend |
Events detected today, scored against each symbol's own baseline: how often the symbol rose over 15 days after this event, compared with how often it rose after any day. Small samples are discounted. Top 10 shown by default. Each event compares the current moving average setup with historical occurrences of the same pattern. Historical hit rates and forward returns show how stocks typically behaved after similar EMA21 and SMA50 events.
| Symbol | Event | Score | Hit Rate | vs. own base | Avg 5d | Avg 15d | n | MA Align. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HD | SMA50 Ext >2 ATR | A | 63.6% | +5.6 pts | +0.3% | +1.3% | 302 | Mixed |
| VRT | SMA50 Reclaim | B | 78.1% | +16.9 pts | -0.6% | +4.5% | 32 | Turning Up |
| SYK | SMA100 Reclaim | B | 65.2% | +7.6 pts | +0.1% | +1.7% | 138 | Mixed |
| EQIX | SMA200 Reclaim | B | 69.1% | +11.6 pts | -0.5% | +1.2% | 55 | Mixed |
| NVDA | SMA100 Retest | B | 62.0% | +8.2 pts | +1.2% | +5.3% | 100 | Downtrend Building |
| ARES | SMA200 Reclaim | B | 78.3% | +18.2 pts | +2.7% | +3.4% | 23 | Uptrend |
| MDB | EMA21 In Cloud | B | 63.9% | +7.3 pts | +0.3% | +4.3% | 72 | Uptrend Building |
| VCR | SMA100 Reclaim | B | 66.7% | +6.4 pts | +0.1% | +1.0% | 72 | Uptrend |
| ARES | SMA100 Reclaim | B | 66.7% | +6.6 pts | +0.2% | +3.7% | 48 | Uptrend |
| AAPL | EMA21 Bounce | C | 62.3% | +4.5 pts | +1.2% | +2.4% | 355 | Uptrend |
| Symbol | Event | Score | Hit Rate | vs. own base | Avg 5d | Avg 15d | n | MA Align. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MDB | EMA21 In Cloud | B | 63.9% | +7.3 pts | +0.3% | +4.3% | 72 | Uptrend Building |
| AAPL | EMA21 Bounce | C | 62.3% | +4.5 pts | +1.2% | +2.4% | 355 | Uptrend |
| XLRE | EMA21 Bounce | C | 58.6% | +3.4 pts | +0.1% | +0.6% | 186 | Turning Up |
| CTAS | EMA21 Bounce | C | 57.5% | -0.6 pts | +0.2% | +1.0% | 631 | Uptrend Building |
| EQIX | EMA21 Bounce | C | 58.0% | +0.5 pts | +0.6% | +2.0% | 386 | Mixed |
| KO | EMA21 Bounce | C | 57.4% | -1.2 pts | +0.3% | +0.8% | 577 | Uptrend Building |
| AXON | EMA21 Bounce | C | 54.6% | +0.1 pts | +1.5% | +3.9% | 317 | Turning Up |
| PWR | EMA21 Bounce | C | 56.3% | -0.7 pts | +0.8% | +1.5% | 421 | Mixed |
| HIMS | EMA21 Bounce | C | 55.0% | +4.4 pts | +2.2% | +4.0% | 80 | Mixed |
| WM | EMA21 Bounce | C | 54.1% | -2.7 pts | +0.3% | +1.0% | 518 | Uptrend Building |
| Symbol | Event | Score | Hit Rate | vs. own base | Avg 5d | Avg 15d | n | MA Align. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VRT | SMA50 Reclaim | B | 78.1% | +16.9 pts | -0.6% | +4.5% | 32 | Turning Up |
| PWR | SMA50 Reclaim | C | 58.5% | +1.5 pts | +0.3% | +0.7% | 142 | Mixed |
| JPM | SMA50 Reclaim | C | 57.1% | +1.2 pts | +0.7% | +0.6% | 140 | Uptrend |
| SAIA | SMA50 Reclaim | C | 58.0% | +2.2 pts | +0.9% | +2.2% | 112 | Turning Up |
| HEI | SMA50 Reclaim | C | 52.3% | -0.9 pts | +0.8% | +1.5% | 193 | Mixed |
| DLR | SMA50 Reclaim | C | 61.0% | +0.5 pts | -0.4% | +0.8% | 118 | Turning Up |
| APH | SMA50 Reclaim | C | 55.7% | -1.3 pts | +0.9% | +1.6% | 174 | Uptrend |
| XLRE | SMA50 Reclaim | C | 58.7% | +3.5 pts | -0.1% | +0.2% | 63 | Turning Up |
| ARES | SMA50 Reclaim | C | 61.0% | +0.9 pts | +0.1% | +2.2% | 59 | Uptrend |
| CRM | SMA50 Retest | C | 53.6% | -4.3 pts | +0.4% | +1.6% | 125 | Turning Down |
| Symbol | Event | Score | Hit Rate | vs. own base | Avg 5d | Avg 15d | n | MA Align. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SYK | SMA100 Reclaim | B | 65.2% | +7.6 pts | +0.1% | +1.7% | 138 | Mixed |
| NVDA | SMA100 Retest | B | 62.0% | +8.2 pts | +1.2% | +5.3% | 100 | Downtrend Building |
| VCR | SMA100 Reclaim | B | 66.7% | +6.4 pts | +0.1% | +1.0% | 72 | Uptrend |
| ARES | SMA100 Reclaim | B | 66.7% | +6.6 pts | +0.2% | +3.7% | 48 | Uptrend |
| HD | SMA100 Reclaim | C | 57.9% | -0.1 pts | -0.6% | +0.1% | 126 | Mixed |
| RTX | SMA100 Reclaim | C | 54.3% | -4.8 pts | -0.4% | +0.6% | 129 | Uptrend |
| ROK | SMA100 Reclaim | C | 50.4% | -7.1 pts | -0.1% | +0.1% | 139 | Uptrend |
| LOW | SMA100 Reclaim | C | 48.1% | -7.4 pts | -0.2% | -0.3% | 108 | Mixed |
| DIA | SMA100 Retest | C | 50.4% | -10.5 pts | +0.1% | +0.0% | 115 | Mixed |
| JPM | SMA100 Reclaim | C | 44.9% | -11.0 pts | -0.4% | -1.1% | 118 | Uptrend |
| Symbol | Event | Score | Hit Rate | vs. own base | Avg 5d | Avg 15d | n | MA Align. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EQIX | SMA200 Reclaim | B | 69.1% | +11.6 pts | -0.5% | +1.2% | 55 | Mixed |
| ARES | SMA200 Reclaim | B | 78.3% | +18.2 pts | +2.7% | +3.4% | 23 | Uptrend |
| HEI | SMA200 Reclaim | C | 51.2% | -2.0 pts | -0.1% | +1.2% | 82 | Mixed |
| XLY | SMA200 Reclaim | C | 58.2% | -1.8 pts | +0.1% | +0.1% | 55 | Uptrend |
| PWR | SMA200 Reclaim | C | 53.4% | -3.6 pts | +0.7% | +1.0% | 58 | Mixed |
| VCR | SMA200 Reclaim | C | 58.1% | -2.2 pts | +0.1% | +0.2% | 43 | Uptrend |
| Symbol | Event | Score | Hit Rate | vs. own base | Avg 5d | Avg 15d | n | MA Align. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOOGL | Death Cross | C | 69.2% | +9.3 pts | +0.8% | +3.9% | 13 | Downtrend |
| RTX | Death Cross | C | 57.1% | -2.0 pts | +1.5% | +1.4% | 28 | Uptrend |
| Symbol | Event | Score | Hit Rate | vs. own base | Avg 5d | Avg 15d | n | MA Align. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HD | SMA50 Ext >2 ATR | A | 63.6% | +5.6 pts | +0.3% | +1.3% | 302 | Mixed |
| WM | SMA50 Ext >2 ATR | C | 60.9% | +4.1 pts | +0.9% | +1.4% | 274 | Uptrend Building |
| GWW | SMA50 Ext >2 ATR | C | 60.2% | +3.5 pts | +0.3% | +1.2% | 322 | Uptrend |
| SBUX | SMA50 Ext >2 ATR | C | 59.8% | +2.7 pts | +0.7% | +1.7% | 306 | Uptrend |
| KO | SMA50 Ext >2 ATR | C | 60.9% | +2.3 pts | +0.1% | +0.8% | 327 | Uptrend Building |
| PFE | SMA50 Ext >2 ATR | C | 56.4% | +2.4 pts | +0.2% | +0.3% | 314 | Uptrend |
| UNP | SMA50 Ext >2 ATR | C | 55.5% | -0.4 pts | +0.2% | +0.4% | 292 | Uptrend |
| XLB | SMA50 Ext >2 ATR | C | 56.5% | -0.4 pts | +0.2% | +0.1% | 285 | Uptrend |
| UNH | SMA50 Ext >2 ATR | C | 59.2% | -0.8 pts | +0.3% | +0.5% | 267 | Uptrend Building |
| SYK | SMA50 Ext >2 ATR | C | 55.6% | -2.0 pts | +0.3% | +0.6% | 365 | Mixed |
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Track active moving average signals for up to 60 days and compare the current price move with the historical average outcome at the same point after the signal occurred.
| Symbol | Event | Signal date | Window | Current move | Hist. avg same day | Hist. avg 15d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GTLB 3x | EMA21 Bounce | 01.10.2026 | +13.4% | -0.7% | -0.7% | |
| KLAC 11x | Death Cross | 26.10.2026 | +12.2% | +1.4% | -1.6% | |
| USO 14x | SMA50 Ext >2 ATR | 12.10.2026 | +11.4% | +1.1% | +1.2% | |
| LMT 9x | SMA200 Reclaim | 22.10.2026 | +9.1% | +0.4% | +1.9% | |
| COP 10x | SMA50 Ext >2 ATR | 12.10.2026 | +9.1% | +0.6% | +0.8% | |
| XOM 14x | SMA50 Ext >2 ATR | 08.10.2026 | +8.8% | +0.4% | +0.4% | |
| BBAI 3x | EMA21 Bounce | 28.10.2026 | +8.5% | +1.0% | +8.6% | |
| LRCX 13x | SMA200 Retest | 15.10.2026 | -8.3% | +0.7% | +1.6% | |
| NRG 3x | EMA21 Bounce | 13.10.2026 | -9.0% | +0.7% | +0.8% | |
| XLC 22x | SMA100 Reclaim | 06.10.2026 | -9.3% | +0.2% | +0.1% |
Showing the 50 largest current moves, up and down, of 229 active signals in this category.
| Symbol | Event | Signal date | Window | Current move | Hist. avg same day | Hist. avg 15d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LMT 2x | EMA21 Bounce | 15.10.2026 | +20.8% | +0.7% | +1.0% | |
| GDX 4x | EMA21 Bounce | 22.09.2026 | -16.9% | +0.8% | +0.3% | |
| LSCC 2x | EMA21 In Cloud | 08.10.2026 | -17.6% | +1.1% | +1.1% | |
| SMCI 7x | EMA21 In Cloud | 09.10.2026 | -17.7% | +1.4% | +1.3% | |
| RKLB 5x | EMA21 In Cloud | 07.10.2026 | -17.8% | +3.7% | +3.5% | |
| INTC 5x | EMA21 In Cloud | 06.10.2026 | -18.2% | +1.3% | +1.1% | |
| MTSI 8x | EMA21 Bounce | 13.10.2026 | -18.2% | +1.0% | +1.2% | |
| GOOGL 7x | EMA21 In Cloud | 14.10.2026 | -18.4% | +1.2% | +1.5% | |
| BE 4x | EMA21 In Cloud | 08.10.2026 | -18.5% | +4.6% | +4.6% | |
| MRVL 10x | EMA21 Bounce | 13.10.2026 | -18.8% | +1.9% | +2.5% |
Showing the 50 largest current moves, up and down, of 229 active signals in this category.
| Symbol | Event | Signal date | Window | Current move | Hist. avg same day | Hist. avg 15d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USO | SMA50 Reclaim | 10.08.2026 | +33.6% | +3.3% | -0.2% | |
| BUG | SMA50 Retest | 11.09.2026 | +27.4% | +2.6% | +0.7% | |
| RXRX 6x | SMA50 Retest | 16.10.2026 | +22.4% | +4.9% | +5.3% | |
| ZIM | SMA50 Retest | 11.08.2026 | +19.2% | +4.0% | -2.3% | |
| HCA | SMA50 Retest | 02.09.2026 | +18.9% | +4.8% | +2.1% | |
| ISRG 3x | SMA50 Reclaim | 14.09.2026 | +18.7% | +2.2% | +1.3% | |
| DHR | SMA50 Retest | 10.09.2026 | +18.2% | +3.6% | +2.0% | |
| ABBV | SMA50 Retest | 08.09.2026 | +16.9% | +2.5% | +1.1% | |
| COP 3x | SMA50 Reclaim | 05.10.2026 | +16.9% | +1.2% | +1.0% | |
| LMT 2x | SMA50 Reclaim | 16.10.2026 | +16.6% | +0.3% | +1.2% |
Showing the 50 largest current moves, up and down, of 212 active signals in this category.
| Symbol | Event | Signal date | Window | Current move | Hist. avg same day | Hist. avg 15d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLNK | SMA100 Reclaim | 12.08.2026 | +33.8% | +26.8% | +26.8% | |
| USO 2x | SMA100 Retest | 25.08.2026 | +33.3% | +1.2% | -0.0% | |
| CVX | SMA100 Retest | 05.08.2026 | +24.2% | +3.1% | +0.4% | |
| RXRX 6x | SMA100 Retest | 16.10.2026 | +22.4% | +6.3% | +11.2% | |
| BSOL | SMA100 Reclaim | 19.08.2026 | +22.1% | +37.9% | +6.9% | |
| COP | SMA100 Reclaim | 10.08.2026 | +21.9% | +3.5% | +0.4% | |
| LLY 2x | SMA100 Retest | 02.10.2026 | +20.2% | +1.7% | +1.3% | |
| XLE | SMA100 Retest | 05.08.2026 | +19.9% | +2.2% | +0.3% | |
| HCA 2x | SMA100 Retest | 02.09.2026 | +18.9% | +3.3% | +1.0% | |
| LMT 2x | SMA100 Reclaim | 16.10.2026 | +16.6% | +0.4% | +0.9% |
Showing the 50 largest current moves, up and down, of 174 active signals in this category.
| Symbol | Event | Signal date | Window | Current move | Hist. avg same day | Hist. avg 15d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZS 5x | SMA200 Reclaim | 14.09.2026 | +29.2% | +6.0% | -0.2% | |
| ENTG | SMA200 Retest | 22.10.2026 | +24.7% | +0.6% | +1.4% | |
| RXRX 2x | SMA200 Retest | 16.10.2026 | +22.4% | -6.5% | -5.3% | |
| DHR 4x | SMA200 Retest | 10.09.2026 | +18.2% | +2.9% | +0.8% | |
| AI 3x | SMA200 Retest | 18.09.2026 | +16.1% | +6.0% | +2.9% | |
| PFE | SMA200 Reclaim | 06.08.2026 | +14.3% | +1.1% | +0.2% | |
| MDB 2x | SMA200 Retest | 16.10.2026 | +14.0% | -1.1% | +1.5% | |
| CRM | SMA200 Reclaim | 19.08.2026 | +12.0% | +8.8% | +1.9% | |
| BLK 4x | SMA200 Retest | 30.09.2026 | +11.2% | +3.2% | +2.5% | |
| REGN 2x | SMA200 Reclaim | 06.10.2026 | +10.8% | -0.3% | -0.7% |
Showing the 50 largest current moves, up and down, of 139 active signals in this category.
| Symbol | Event | Signal date | Window | Current move | Hist. avg same day | Hist. avg 15d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GTLB | Golden Cross | 11.08.2026 | +34.5% | -8.0% | -4.4% | |
| TMO | Golden Cross | 18.08.2026 | +20.4% | +1.6% | +1.9% | |
| ZS | Golden Cross | 21.09.2026 | +19.6% | +10.1% | +3.2% | |
| DHR | Golden Cross | 14.09.2026 | +16.6% | +4.1% | +1.2% | |
| WCN 2x | Death Cross | 28.09.2026 | +16.5% | +4.0% | +3.9% | |
| PLTR | Golden Cross | 09.09.2026 | +15.9% | +19.9% | +5.5% | |
| KLAC | Death Cross | 26.10.2026 | +12.2% | +1.4% | -1.6% | |
| KKR 2x | Death Cross | 14.10.2026 | +11.9% | +3.8% | +5.9% | |
| WM | Death Cross | 22.09.2026 | +11.2% | +4.1% | +2.7% | |
| ETR | Death Cross | 30.09.2026 | +10.8% | +0.4% | +0.1% |
Showing the 50 largest current moves, up and down, of 88 active signals in this category.
No event today has a hit rate that is reliably above the symbol's own baseline (lower 95% bound, at least 20 past events). Most single-symbol event statistics are within the range of chance - that is a result, not a gap.
Percentage of sector members above each MA and their average ATR-normalized distance. Negative values indicate that the average sector member is below that MA.
| Sector | Sym. | EMA21 | SMA50 | SMA200 | Status | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| %> | ATR | %> | ATR | %> | ATR | |||
| Energy | 8 | 87.5% | 1.1 | 87.5% | 2.7 | 87.5% | 7.2 | Strong · Elevated |
| Healthcare | 19 | 89.5% | 1.2 | 84.2% | 1.9 | 84.2% | 4.1 | Strong · Elevated |
| Consumer Defensive | 4 | 75% | 1.2 | 75% | 2.4 | 100% | 4.3 | Strong · Elevated |
| Consumer Cyclical | 13 | 76.9% | 0.9 | 61.5% | 0.5 | 38.5% | -1.9 | Moderate · Healthy |
| Industrials | 50 | 58% | 0.5 | 52% | 0.2 | 42% | -0.5 | Mixed |
| Real Estate | 8 | 62.5% | 0.5 | 50% | -0.5 | 37.5% | -1 | Mixed |
| Utilities | 8 | 50% | 0.8 | 50% | 0.7 | 25% | -1.9 | Mixed |
| Financial Services | 21 | 61.9% | 0.6 | 42.9% | -0.4 | 33.3% | 0 | Weak · Below EMA21 |
| Technology | 53 | 30.2% | -0.3 | 28.3% | -0.5 | 64.2% | 1.8 | Weak · Below MA |
| Agriculture | 4 | 0% | -2.3 | 25% | -4 | 50% | 1.5 | Weak · Below MA |
| Index | 13 | 46.2% | -0.7 | 23.1% | -1.7 | 46.2% | -0.2 | Weak · Below MA |
| Commodities | 17 | 17.6% | -1.3 | 5.9% | -3.4 | 17.6% | -4.9 | Weak · Below MA |
| Communication Services | 7 | 0% | -2.3 | 0% | -3.5 | 0% | -4.7 | Weak · Below MA |
| Crypto | 5 | 0% | -1.1 | 0% | -1.3 | 80% | 2.3 | Weak · Below MA |
MA breadth applied to investment themes. Where is momentum building - and where is it fading?
| Theme | Sym. | EMA21 | SMA50 | SMA200 | Momentum | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| %> | ATR | %> | ATR | %> | ATR | |||
| Artificial Intelligence & Compute | 30 | 36.7% | -0.3 | 30% | -0.5 | 70% | 2.2 | ▼ Weak |
| Semiconductor Infrastructure | 9 | 11.1% | -0.7 | 11.1% | -1.4 | 11.1% | -1.5 | ▼ Weak |
| Capital Markets & Financial Innovation | 16 | 68.8% | 0.7 | 43.8% | -0.3 | 37.5% | 0.5 | ▼ Fading |
| Digital Economy & Platforms | 11 | 0% | -1.5 | 0% | -2.6 | 27.3% | -2.3 | ▼ Weak |
| Software & Digital Transformation | 11 | 27.3% | -0.4 | 45.5% | -0.6 | 54.5% | 1.1 | ▼ Fading |
| Next-Gen Healthcare | 17 | 94.1% | 1.2 | 82.4% | 2 | 88.2% | 4 | ▲ Strong |
| Future Mobility & Defense | 14 | 50% | 0.8 | 35.7% | -0.2 | 28.6% | -2.3 | ▼ Weak |
| Next-Gen Connectivity & Edge | 8 | 37.5% | -0.2 | 25% | -0.9 | 25% | -2.4 | ▼ Weak |
| Automation & Smart Infrastructure | 18 | 77.8% | 0.8 | 72.2% | 0.8 | 61.1% | 1.1 | ▲ Rising |
| Energy Transition & Smart Grid | 12 | 25% | -0.2 | 16.7% | -1.1 | 16.7% | -3.4 | ▼ Weak |
| Sustainability & Resource Transition | 4 | 100% | 1.5 | 100% | 2.9 | 100% | 2.7 | ▲ Strong |
| Legacy Assets & Services | 16 | 87.5% | 1.5 | 81.2% | 2.2 | 62.5% | 2.5 | ▲ Strong |
Every major market crisis since 1985 left a measurable signature in moving-average breadth. Comparing today's SMA50 and SMA200 breadth with historical market events provides context for the current market regime.
| Event | Period | SMA50 breadth at trough |
SMA200 breadth at trough |
Avg ATR ext. SMA50 |
Breadth bar | Recovery time |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today · 2026-10-30 | Active | 42% | 50% | -0.3 | Correction | |
| Tariff Shock | 2025.01-04 | 34% | 41% | -0.6 | 4 months | |
| Yen Carry / Tech | 2024.07-08 | 38% | 52% | -0.3 | 6 weeks | |
| SVB Crisis | 2023.02-03 | 44% | 54% | +0.2 | 8 weeks | |
| Inflation Bear | 2022.01-10 | 14% | 18% | -2.1 | 14 months | |
| COVID Crash | 2020.02-03 | 4% | 7% | -4.8 | 5 months | |
| China / Volmageddon | 2018.09-12 | 18% | 22% | -1.8 | 6 months | |
| EU Debt Crisis | 2011.05-10 | 21% | 29% | -1.4 | 7 months | |
| Financial Crisis | 2007.10-2009.03 | 3% | 4% | -5.2 | 40 months | |
| Dotcom Crash | 2000.03-2002.10 | 8% | 11% | -3.8 | 36 months | |
| Russia / LTCM | 1998.07-10 | 26% | 38% | -1.2 | 3 months | |
| Asia Crisis | 1997.07-10 | 22% | 31% | -1.4 | 4 months | |
| Tequila Crisis | 1994.11-95 | 28% | 34% | -0.9 | 5 months | |
| Gulf War | 1990.07-10 | 18% | 24% | -1.6 | 8 months | |
| Black Monday | 1987.08-10 | 9% | 16% | -3.1 | 15 months |
Recovery time = months until SMA50 breadth returned above 60%.
Search any tracked symbol to see current MA distances, ATR extension vs. SMAa High, MA alignment gauge, and historical outcome statistics.
Aggregated outcome statistics across all 230 symbols and data since 1990. Each card shows the share of events followed by a positive return after 15 and after 60 trading days, and the average largest drawdown within 60 days. Points in brackets are the difference to the baseline. The first card is the baseline: the same figures for every trading day, with or without an event. An event only tells you something where it differs from that baseline. No stops, costs or position sizes are modelled.
15 days: 55.8% positive · avg +1.23%
60 days: 60.8% positive · avg +5.00% · avg max drawdown -9.8% · 35.1% of days with a drawdown of 10% or more
SMA50 above SMA200: 56.3% · below: 55.0% (15 days)
n = 1,265,237 · every trading day of every symbol since 1990, event or not. Compare each event with this card.
15 days: 56.8% positive (+1.0 pts) · avg +1.36%
60 days: 60.9% positive (+0.1 pts) · avg +4.71% · avg max drawdown -9.3% · 33.9% with 10% or more
SMA50 above SMA200: 56.9% · below: 56.5% (15 days)
n = 39,729
15 days: 55.7% positive (-0.1 pts) · avg +1.19%
60 days: 60.5% positive (-0.3 pts) · avg +4.82% · avg max drawdown -9.2% · 33.2% with 10% or more
SMA50 above SMA200: 56.3% · below: 53.9% (15 days)
n = 5,893
15 days: 55.6% positive (-0.2 pts) · avg +1.10%
60 days: 60.5% positive (-0.3 pts) · avg +4.61% · avg max drawdown -9.5% · 34.4% with 10% or more
SMA50 above SMA200: 55.9% · below: 55.3% (15 days)
n = 72,282
15 days: 55.4% positive (-0.4 pts) · avg +1.13%
60 days: 60.3% positive (-0.5 pts) · avg +4.62% · avg max drawdown -9.8% · 35.6% with 10% or more
SMA50 above SMA200: 56.1% · below: 53.6% (15 days)
n = 27,284
15 days: 55.5% positive (-0.3 pts) · avg +1.07%
60 days: 60.2% positive (-0.6 pts) · avg +4.67% · avg max drawdown -9.9% · 35.7% with 10% or more
SMA50 above SMA200: 55.7% · below: 55.5% (15 days)
n = 25,532
15 days: 55.6% positive (-0.2 pts) · avg +1.25%
60 days: 60.4% positive (-0.4 pts) · avg +4.77% · avg max drawdown -9.9% · 36.1% with 10% or more
SMA50 above SMA200: 56.3% · below: 53.6% (15 days)
n = 18,689
15 days: 54.5% positive (-1.3 pts) · avg +0.84%
60 days: 59.5% positive (-1.3 pts) · avg +4.32% · avg max drawdown -10.0% · 36.6% with 10% or more
SMA50 above SMA200: 54.9% · below: 54.1% (15 days)
n = 17,553
15 days: 55.2% positive (-0.6 pts) · avg +1.09%
60 days: 60.8% positive (+0.0 pts) · avg +4.74% · avg max drawdown -10.0% · 36.9% with 10% or more
SMA50 above SMA200: 55% · below: 55.8% (15 days)
n = 12,089
15 days: 54.2% positive (-1.6 pts) · avg +0.71%
60 days: 59.7% positive (-1.1 pts) · avg +4.10% · avg max drawdown -9.9% · 35.6% with 10% or more
SMA50 above SMA200: 54.4% · below: 54.2% (15 days)
n = 11,414
15 days: 55.7% positive (-0.1 pts) · avg +1.03%
60 days: 60.7% positive (-0.1 pts) · avg +5.07% · avg max drawdown -9.2% · 32.7% with 10% or more
n = 3,541
15 days: 57.2% positive (+1.4 pts) · avg +1.43%
60 days: 63.3% positive (+2.5 pts) · avg +5.69% · avg max drawdown -10.3% · 36.8% with 10% or more
n = 3,522
15 days: 55.9% positive (+0.1 pts) · avg +1.12%
60 days: 60.4% positive (-0.4 pts) · avg +4.53% · avg max drawdown -9.2% · 33.4% with 10% or more
SMA50 above SMA200: 56.1% · below: 55.8% (15 days)
n = 43,635
Average percentage of symbols above each MA and average ATR-normalized distance by year. Crisis years are highlighted in red, and the current year in green.
| Year | EMA21 | SMA50 | SMA200 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| %> | ATR | %> | ATR | %> | ATR | |
| 2026 | 51% | 0.2 | 52% | 0.5 | 60% | 2.2 |
| 2025 | 57% | 0.4 | 58% | 0.9 | 62% | 2.8 |
| 2024 | 59% | 0.5 | 63% | 1.2 | 74% | 4.5 |
| 2023 | 59% | 0.4 | 59% | 1 | 68% | 3.1 |
| 2022 | 44% | -0.1 | 41% | -0.2 | 33% | -1.2 |
| 2021 | 60% | 0.5 | 63% | 1.2 | 79% | 5.6 |
| 2020 | 65% | 0.6 | 67% | 1.5 | 67% | 2.7 |
| Year | EMA21 | SMA50 | SMA200 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| %> | ATR | %> | ATR | %> | ATR | |
| 2019 | 66% | 0.6 | 67% | 1.4 | 67% | 3.1 |
| 2018 | 52% | 0.1 | 51% | 0.4 | 60% | 2.5 |
| 2017 | 66% | 0.7 | 71% | 1.6 | 80% | 5.7 |
| 2016 | 60% | 0.4 | 62% | 1 | 67% | 3.1 |
| 2015 | 49% | 0 | 49% | 0.1 | 50% | 0.6 |
| 2014 | 60% | 0.4 | 62% | 0.9 | 74% | 3.6 |
| 2013 | 64% | 0.6 | 68% | 1.4 | 78% | 4.9 |
| 2012 | 58% | 0.3 | 59% | 0.8 | 64% | 2.4 |
| 2011 | 53% | 0.1 | 54% | 0.4 | 60% | 2.6 |
| 2010 | 61% | 0.4 | 61% | 1.1 | 68% | 3.3 |
| Year | EMA21 | SMA50 | SMA200 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| %> | ATR | %> | ATR | %> | ATR | |
| 2009 | 64% | 0.5 | 70% | 1.3 | 60% | 2.7 |
| 2008 | 40% | -0.3 | 36% | -0.5 | 28% | -1.5 |
| 2007 | 57% | 0.3 | 57% | 0.7 | 70% | 3.2 |
| 2006 | 60% | 0.4 | 61% | 1 | 70% | 3.4 |
| 2005 | 56% | 0.3 | 59% | 0.8 | 70% | 3.1 |
| 2004 | 61% | 0.4 | 63% | 1 | 69% | 3.5 |
| 2003 | 65% | 0.6 | 69% | 1.4 | 75% | 4.5 |
| 2002 | 46% | 0 | 46% | 0 | 39% | -0.4 |
| 2001 | 53% | 0.1 | 52% | 0.4 | 46% | 0.3 |
| 2000 | 51% | 0.2 | 52% | 0.5 | 54% | 1.6 |
| Year | EMA21 | SMA50 | SMA200 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| %> | ATR | %> | ATR | %> | ATR | |
| 1999 | 53% | 0.3 | 50% | 0.7 | 34% | 1.4 |
| 1998 | 47% | 0.2 | 47% | 0.7 | 42% | 1.4 |
| 1997 | 53% | 0.4 | 55% | 1.1 | 70% | 5.1 |
| 1996 | 53% | 0.4 | 57% | 1.1 | 66% | 3.8 |
| 1995 | 59% | 0.6 | 64% | 1.7 | 74% | 6.3 |
| 1994 | 49% | 0.2 | 50% | 0.5 | 56% | 2.1 |
| 1993 | 51% | 0.3 | 54% | 0.9 | 63% | 3.9 |
| 1992 | 50% | 0.3 | 50% | 0.8 | 56% | 2.5 |
| 1991 | 54% | 0.5 | 59% | 1.4 | 68% | 5.4 |
| 1990 | 47% | 0.2 | 47% | 0.5 | 46% | 1.1 |
Core concepts behind the research methodology - how moving averages are calculated, interpreted, and used as a trading system.
A Simple Moving Average (SMA) - called GD in German-speaking markets - calculates the arithmetic mean of closing prices over a defined period. The SMA50 adds up the last 50 closing prices and divides by 50. Each new trading day, the oldest price drops off and the newest is added, so the line “moves” forward in time.
SMAs are direction-neutral: they simply reflect where price has averaged over the lookback window. A rising SMA50 means the average of the last 50 closes is higher than it was yesterday. Our dataset covers 230 US stocks and ETFs back to 1990, which gives 27,284 SMA50 Retest events across multiple market regimes.
An Exponential Moving Average (EMA) applies a weighting multiplier that gives more importance to recent prices. The EMA21 uses a smoothing factor of 2/(21+1) ≈ 0.0909, so yesterday’s EMA contributes about 90.9% to today’s value and today’s close contributes 9.1%. This means the EMA reacts faster to price changes than an SMA of the same period.
We use the EMA21 as a cloud: EMA21H (high-based) and EMA21L (low-based) define upper and lower boundaries. Price trading between these two lines is “in the cloud” - a zone of consolidation. In our universe, 39,729 drops into the cloud from above were followed by a positive 15-day return in 56.8% of cases, with an average 15-day move of +1.36% (baseline: 55.8% and +1.23%).
Average True Range (ATR) measures volatility by averaging the “true range” over 14 periods. True range is the largest of: today’s high minus low, today’s high minus yesterday’s close, or yesterday’s close minus today’s low. The result is a volatility-adjusted unit specific to each symbol.
We use the normalized ATR, i.e. ATR14 as a percentage of the price. Expressing the percentage distance from an MA relative to this value (SMAa values) makes symbols comparable across different price levels and volatility regimes. A 3% gap above SMA50 means something different for a low-volatility utility stock versus a high-volatility semiconductor. A SMAa value above 2.0 means the distance above the MA is more than twice the average daily range. Our SMAa High reference is the average of the top 10% of extension readings over the last 3 years.
The classic two-MA system uses a faster and a slower average to define trend. When the faster MA is above the slower, the trend is up; when below, the trend is down. Our primary system uses SMA50 and SMA200: SMA50 > SMA200 signals a long-term uptrend, SMA50 < SMA200 a downtrend.
We report every event separately for both states. In our dataset, SMA50 Retests show a hit rate of 56.1% when the SMA50 is above the SMA200 and 53.6% when it is below; for EMA21 Bounces the figures are 55.9% and 55.3%. Whether the trend context helps is therefore a question the numbers answer for each event, not a rule.
A Golden Cross occurs when the SMA50 crosses above the SMA200 from below - signaling a potential shift from long-term downtrend to uptrend. A Death Cross is the reverse: SMA50 crosses below SMA200. These are low-frequency events: in our universe of 230 symbols since 1990, we observe 3,541 Golden Crosses and 3,522 Death Crosses in total.
In our data, Golden Crosses were followed by a positive 15-day return in 55.7% of cases (average +1.03%), Death Crosses in 57.2% (average +1.43%). The baseline for any trading day is 55.8% and +1.23%. Read both crosses against that baseline: a figure close to it means the cross itself adds little. Over 60 trading days the picture is: Golden Cross 60.7% positive with an average largest drawdown of -9.2%, Death Cross 63.3% and -10.3%, baseline 60.8% and -9.8%.
Moving averages create support and resistance because large institutional participants - fund managers, algorithmic systems - use the same levels to make buy and sell decisions. When price approaches the SMA200 from above, buyers who use this level as a reference will step in, creating demand that slows the decline.
Our retest events capture exactly this dynamic. A SMA50 Retest is recorded on the first close below the SMA50 after at least 3 closes above it. Across 27,284 such events in our dataset since 1990, the average 15-day outcome is +1.13% with a 55.4% hit rate, against a baseline of +1.23% and 55.8% for any trading day. The gap between the two is the measurable effect of the level.
The SMAa High reference answers the question: “How extended does this symbol typically get at its most extreme?” We calculate it by taking all daily SMAa readings - the percentage distance from the MA divided by ATR14 - for each symbol over the last 3 years, sorting them from highest to lowest, and averaging the top 10% of positive values.
This gives a symbol-specific “typical extreme” rather than an all-time outlier. If a symbol’s SMAa High for SMA50 is 3.2, it means that during extreme extension phases over the last 3 years, the average peak SMA50 extension was 3.2 on the SMAa scale. The ATR Extension Gauge in each symbol detail shows how today’s reading compares to this historical extreme.
How every number on this site is calculated - from raw price data to the statistics you see. Historical coverage varies by symbol. The research uses the longest available daily history for each security, while market-event breadth is based on the historical universe available at the time.
Universe: 230 US stocks and ETFs, covering large-cap indices, sector ETFs, and individual stocks across all major sectors. The universe is curated for liquidity and sufficient price history.
History: Data covers from 1990 to the present. Earlier data exists for some symbols but is excluded to ensure consistent cross-symbol comparability. A moving average only enters the statistics once it exists for a symbol, for example after 200 trading days for the SMA200.
Survivorship bias: The statistics apply today's symbol list to the whole history. Companies that were delisted or acquired are missing, and today's universe contains stocks that are tracked because they became important. This lifts all historical figures, including the baseline.
Source: End-of-day OHLCV (Open, High, Low, Close, Volume) data from public US market data sources. Data is collected after US market close and processed nightly.
SMA (Simple Moving Average): The arithmetic mean of the last N closing prices. SMA50 = sum of last 50 closes / 50. Updated daily as the oldest value drops off and the newest close is added.
EMA21 (Exponential Moving Average, 21-period): A weighted average that gives more weight to recent prices. Smoothing factor = 2 / (21 + 1) ≈ 0.0909. Today’s EMA = yesterday’s EMA × 0.9091 + today’s close × 0.0909.
EMA21 Cloud: Two EMA21 lines calculated on daily Highs (EMA21H) and daily Lows (EMA21L). Price above EMA21H = “Above cloud”. Price between EMA21H and EMA21L = “In cloud”. Price below EMA21L = “Below cloud”.
Tracked MAs: SMA5, SMA10, EMA21, SMA20, SMA50, SMA100, SMA200.
SMA Retest (SMA50, SMA100, SMA200): The close was above the MA for at least 3 consecutive days, then closes below it. Detected on the first close below. Signals a test of a widely-watched level.
SMA Reclaim (SMA50, SMA100, SMA200): The close was below the MA for at least 3 consecutive days, then closes above it. Detected on the first close above.
EMA21 In Cloud: The close was above the EMA21 cloud for at least 3 consecutive days, then closes inside it (between EMA21L and EMA21H).
EMA21 Cloud Break: The close was above the cloud for at least 3 consecutive days, then closes below EMA21L on the next day, passing through the cloud in one session.
EMA21 Bounce: The close was inside the cloud on the previous day and is back above EMA21H.
Extension >2 ATR: The ATR-normalized distance of the close above the SMA50 exceeds 2.0. Detected only on the first day the threshold is crossed, not on subsequent days while extended.
Not counted: An MA that does not exist yet for a symbol (for example the SMA200 in the first 200 trading days) produces no events.
Golden Cross: SMA50 crosses above SMA200 from below. Detected on the first crossing day.
Death Cross: SMA50 crosses below SMA200 from above. Detected on the first crossing day.
Signal date: The event is recorded on the day it is detected. The closing price on that day is used as the entry reference price.
Forward returns: Measured at exactly 5, 10, and 15 trading days after the signal date. Return = (close at day N − signal close) / signal close × 100. Trading days only - weekends and holidays are excluded.
Baseline: The same 15-day calculation for every trading day of every symbol since 1990, whether an event occurred or not. Currently 55.8% positive with an average of +1.23% (n = 1,265,237). An event statistic is only informative where it differs from this.
60-day outcomes: For the slower events a 15-day window is short. Every event is therefore also measured after 60 trading days: the share with a positive return, the average return, and the largest drawdown, i.e. the lowest close within those 60 days relative to the signal close (0% if the close never fell below it). The baseline for any trading day is 60.8% positive, +5.00% on average, with an average largest drawdown of -9.8%; 35.1% of all days were followed by a drawdown of 10% or more.
Hit rate: The percentage of events where the 15-day forward return is positive. A hit rate of 55% means 55 out of 100 historical signals produced a positive return after 15 trading days.
Bull / Bear alignment hit rate: The same hit rate calculation applied only to events that occurred when the symbol was in a bullish (SMA50 > SMA200) or bearish (SMA50 < SMA200) trend context respectively.
Median 15d: The median (middle value) of all 15-day returns for a given event type and symbol. Less affected by outliers than the average.
ATR(14): Average True Range over 14 periods. True Range = max(High − Low, |High − prev. Close|, |Low − prev. Close|). ATR = 14-period smoothed average of True Range values. The site uses the normalized form (NATR): ATR divided by the close, in percent.
ATR-normalized distance (GDa): The percentage distance from an MA normalized by ATR(14). GD50a = ((Close − SMA50) / SMA50) × 100 / ATR(14). Positive values indicate that price is above the MA; negative values indicate that price is below it. This normalization makes MA extensions comparable across symbols with different price levels and volatility.
GDa High: Symbol-specific reference for typical extreme extension. Calculated as the average of the top 10% of positive GDa readings over the last 3 years. Used as the 100% reference in the ATR Extension gauge. If today’s GDa is 60% of GDa High, the current extension is at 60% of the symbol’s typical extreme.
Score (0–100): Based on how many of the 7 tracked MAs price is currently above. Each MA contributes proportionally: 7/7 above = score 100, 0/7 above = score 0.
Labels: Uptrend: price above all 7 MAs. Uptrend Building: above at least 5 of 7, including both slow MAs. Turning Down: above both slow MAs but above at most one of the three fast MAs. Turning Up: above at least two fast MAs but below both slow MAs. Downtrend: above at most 2 of 7 and below both slow MAs. Downtrend Building: above at most 3 of 7 and at most one fast MA. Mixed: everything else.
Fast group: SMA5, SMA10, EMA21 - react quickly to price changes. Slow group: SMA100, SMA200 - reflect long-term trend direction. When the groups disagree, the label is Turning Up or Turning Down.
Breadth: The percentage of tracked symbols currently above a given MA. SMA50 breadth = number of symbols with Close > SMA50, divided by total universe size.
Regime classification: Based on SMA50 breadth. Bull Market: ≥70%. Recovery: 50–69%. Correction: 30–49%. Bear Market: <30%.
Historical parallel: The closest historical crisis is the one with the smallest distance to today, calculated as the difference in SMA50 breadth plus half the difference in SMA200 breadth. The reference values at each crisis trough were calculated once from our database and are fixed.
Recovery time: Number of calendar months from the crisis trough until SMA50 breadth returned above 60% for the first time.
Each night, all 230 symbols are scanned for defined MA events. A SMA50 Retest is detected on the first close below the SMA50 after at least 3 consecutive closes above it. Outcomes are measured at 5, 10, and 15 trading days from the signal close price. Hit rate is the percentage of events with a positive 15-day return; the baseline for any trading day is 55.8%. Data covers back to 1990 for most symbols.
GDxxxa values express the percentage distance between price and the moving average, normalized by ATR(14). The percentage distance is calculated as (price - MA) / MA × 100 and then divided by ATR(14) in percent of price, providing a volatility-adjusted measure that can be compared across symbols with different price levels and volatility. The SMAa High reference is the average of the highest decile of GDxxxa values over the past 3 years. It represents a typical extreme extension reached during strong trending periods rather than a single outlier.
7 MAs evaluated per symbol: SMA5, SMA10, EMA21, SMA20, SMA50, SMA100, SMA200. Fast group (SMA5/SMA10/EMA21) and slow group (SMA100/SMA200) evaluated separately. Price above all 7 = Uptrend, below (almost) all = Downtrend. Fast and slow group disagree = Turning Up or Turning Down. Partial = Uptrend Building, Downtrend Building or Mixed.
The closest historical parallel is the crisis trough with the smallest distance to today: difference in SMA50 breadth plus half the difference in SMA200 breadth. Recovery time = months until SMA50 breadth returned above 60%.
Every symbol gets its own baseline: the share of all its trading days since 1990 that were followed by a positive 15-day return. An event is compared with that baseline, not with the market average - a stock that rose after 62% of all days is not special because it also rose after 62% of its EMA21 Bounces. Score A: at least 50 past events for that symbol and event type, and the lower bound of the 95% confidence interval (Wilson) of the hit rate is above the symbol's baseline. Score B: at least 20 events and a hit rate at least 5 points above the baseline. Score C: everything else. The same rule applies to every event type, because the hit rate always measures a positive return.
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movingaverageresearch.com is an independent research tool built and maintained by a private trader with over 35 years of experience in financial markets and market data infrastructure. Not affiliated with any broker, data vendor, or financial institution.